Driver-Based Forecasting

Synthetic scenario planning pack, actuals through May 2026 and forecast through Dec 2027
Scenario Base
Years 2026-2027
All regions
USD
Base Revenue
$273.4M
+$49.5M upside
-$41.2M downside
Base EBITDA
$31.4M
11.5% margin
Gross Margin
19.7%
+2.6 pts vs downside
Ending Cash
$21.9M
Dec 2027 base case
Forecast Accuracy
6.4%
MAPE historical
Assumption Owners
5
Volume, rate, cost, hiring, cash
12M Trend: Revenue Forecast by Scenario
Actuals are locked through May 2026; base, upside, and downside forecast lines start at forecast signoff.
Actual Base Upside Downside 0M 160M 320M 06/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 03/26 06/26 12/27
Forecast Variance by Driver
Latest base case sensitivity versus downside guardrail.
Volume growth
+$18.4M
Rate / yield
+$9.7M
Cost inflation
-$6.8M
Hiring phasing
-$2.1M
Cash timing
$21.9M
Forecast Signoff Table
Metric Actual Run Rate Base Upside Downside Risk / Opportunity
Revenue $223.9M $273.4M $322.9M $232.2M +$49.5M upside
EBITDA $24.7M $31.4M $43.9M $18.6M -$12.8M downside
Gross Margin % 18.8% 19.7% 21.4% 17.1% +1.7 pts upside
Ending Cash $13.0M $21.9M $32.8M $10.3M $4.7M buffer over guardrail
Forecast MAPE 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 7.9% 1.8 pts accuracy risk
Base to Downside EBITDA Bridge
Bridge isolates forecast pressure into demand, pricing, cost, headcount, and working-capital timing.
$31.4M
Base EBITDA
-$6.2M
Volume softness
-$3.9M
Rate pressure
-$2.8M
Cost inflation
+$1.5M
Hiring deferral
-$1.4M
FX and timing
$18.6M
Downside EBITDA
Commentary

What happened?

Base revenue remains above the actual run rate, but the latest forecast depends on volume recovery and rate discipline through the second half.

Why?

Scenario spread is driven by demand elasticity, cost inflation, and hiring timing. Cash stays positive in downside but only clears the guardrail by $4.7M.

What next?

Lock owner assumptions, test cost inflation sensitivity, and refresh the cash guardrail before the CFO signs the base forecast.

Drill-down Matrix
Switch level to inspect forecast assumptions by owner, service line, region, or exception queue.
Assumption Owner Base Revenue Upside Revenue Downside Revenue EBITDA Impact Cash Impact Owner
Static HTML version of the dashboard. The public page demonstrates forecast logic, scenario bridge, and owner signoff without publishing PBIX, raw extracts, or private model files.